Soaring interest rates were the dominant factor in October’s market, but a large drop occurred in November, which many analysts expect to continue.
Inflation dropped in the latest reading, a very positive development for economic conditions, interest rates, and housing and financial markets.
In a typical seasonal trend, the monthly median house sales price in October 2023 declined slightly from September – but was up 3% year-over-year.
Long-term, annual median house sales prices since 1980, with an estimate for 2023 YTD.
Q3 median house price appreciation since 1990. Over the long term, home-price appreciation has far outpaced inflation.
Q3 median house prices- and year-over-year appreciation rates – across a wide range of major U.S. metro areas. 80% saw y-o-y price increases.
A survey of national homes sales by price segment. As seen in the table above, there is a terrific range of home prices across the nation.
A broad, long-term illustration of the staggering decline in the number of homes for sale, a dynamic with enormous effects on the market.
Month’s Supply of Inventory, a comparison of demand to supply, has been ticking up, but remains very low by long-term pre-pandemic standards.
The number of price reductions has been climbing. Buyers are well advised to take a new look at unsold homes during the mid-winter market.
A broad, long-term illustration of sales volume – basically at its lowest since 2011. On a seasonal basis, the number of sales usually hits its nadir in mid-winter.
The % of homeowners without mortgages hit an all-time high in 2022. This huge reservoir of household wealth has almost certainly increased all-cash purchases.
As a percentage of total sales, all-cash purchases remain at their highest level in 9 years. These buyers are less concerned about interest rates.
After a steep plunge in October, stock markets have seen an astounding recovery in November.
An unfortunate consequence of increasing interest rates, low supply, and a 2023 rebound in demand has been the lowest housing affordability in decades.
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