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Interest rates have plunged since October, and are currently expected to drop further in 2024.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.44.57-PM.png)
Inflation is a huge factor in interest rates, consumer confidence, and housing and financial markets. Most analysts believe inflation will continue to fall in 2024.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.45.05-PM.png)
Consensus opinion is that the Fed will soon begin to drop its benchmark rate. Once it determines a change is appropriate, the Fed often acts quickly and decisively.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.45.12-PM.png)
Rarely have stock markets swung so dramatically from pessimism regarding economic trends to ebullient optimism as in the last 2 months of 2023.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.45.19-PM.png)
The effect of high interest rates on the number of new listings coming on market has had a staggering impact on supply & demand dynamics.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.45.26-PM.png)
Even as rising interest rates negatively affected affordability, the extremely low supply of homes for sale has maintained upward pressure on home prices.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.45.33-PM.png)
Home sales plunged in 2023, but if economic conditions continue to improve as currently forecast, both supply and demand should rise in 2024.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.45.39-PM.png)
Monthly accepted-offer activity, seen below, highlights the effects of market seasonality. Activity usually picks up rapidly in the 1st quarter to peak in spring.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.45.46-PM.png)
A long-term illustration of national median house sales prices – which defying expectations, saw a strong recovery in 2023 after the mid-2022 plunge.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.45.55-PM.png)
Perhaps due to their relative affordability, median prices of condos and co-ops rebounded even more than house prices to hit a new high last year.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.46.02-PM.png)
Across all national regions, there has been very substantial
home price appreciation over the past 5 years.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.46.10-PM.png)
Speed of sale is mostly determined by the intensity of buyer demand as compared to supply. Median days on market remain very low by long-term standards.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.46.19-PM.png)
As interest rates rose, so did the percentage of all-cash buyers – who have played an increasing role in supporting demand and home prices.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.46.27-PM.png)
One of the biggest factors behind demand is population change, especially migration, which has been a particularly important issue since the pandemic.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.46.34-PM.png)
The rate of new home construction is a critical dynamic in both the supply of homes for sale and housing affordability. It varies widely by state.
![](https://marnierocks.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/182/Screenshot-2024-01-22-at-1.46.55-PM.png)
Please let me know if I can ever be of assistance to you or to your family, friends and colleagues. Wishing you and yours a safe, happy, healthy and prosperous 2024!